Kenneth J. Arrow, Shyam Sunder, Robert Forsythe, Robert E. Litan, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Michael Gorham, Robert W. Hahn, Robin Hanson, Daniel Kahneman, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Paul R. Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Charles R. Plott, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik C. Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, Hal R. Varian, & Justin Wolfers, Statement on Prediction Markets (AEI-Brookings Joint Ctr., Related Publication No. 07-11, 2007).
Abstract: Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will benefit the private sector and government alike.