Abstract: It is reasonable for outsiders to wonder whether the Egyptian regime can be changed, just as it was reasonable a month ago to suppose that President Mubarak would be able to manage and contain the demonstrations. These remain early days, the military remains in charge, as it has been for more than fifty years, without institutional checks and balances or mechanisms for accountability. The forces that brought down Mubarak have not yet brought down his regime. They remain fragmented and lacking in institutional structure. Before we dream about agendas for reform, we might well worry whether it is realistic to expect much to change.