The potential emergence of artificial gene ral intelligence (AGI) is plausible and should be taken seriously by the U. S. national security community. Yet the pace and potential progress of AGI' s emergence — as well as the composition of a post-AGI future — is shrouded in a cloud of uncertainty. This poses a challenge for strategists and poli cymakers trying to discern what potential threats and opportunities might e merge on the path to AGI and once AGI is achieved.
BKC is pleased to welcome Jeff Alstott\, Joel Predd\, Jim Mitre\, and Casey Dugan from RAND\, a nonprofit\, nonpartisan research organization that provides leaders with the information they need to make evidence-based decisions.
Jeff Alstott is founding director of RAND's c enter for Technology and Security Policy (TASP)\, which performs policy R&D on technology competition and risks. Jeff is also also a senior informatio n scientist and professor of policy analysis at RAND\, and an expert at the National Science Foundation\, where he runs a program on technology foreca sting and improving R&D investment returns. His government service includes time at the White House as Director for Technology and National Security a t the National Security Council and Assistant Director for Technology Compe tition and Risks at the Office of Science and Technology Policy. He previou sly worked in the Intelligence Community as a program manager at IARPA\, wi th an R&D portfolio that included artificial intelligence\, analytic method s\, biosecurity\, and science and technology forecasting\; he helped lead i ntelligence working groups on AI intelligence collection and analysis\, and was part of an award-winning team on technology counterintelligence. He ha s worked in academia for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology\, Singap ore University of Technology and Design\, the World Bank\, and the Universi ty of Chicago. Alstott's published research covers animal behavior\, comput ational neuroscience\, complex networks\, design science\, statistical meth ods\, and science and technology forecasting. He obtained his doctorate stu dying complex networks at the University of Cambridge\, and his MBA and bac helor's degrees from Indiana University.
Joel B. P redd is a senior engineer at RAND where he served in various roles since 20 06. Predd’s current research portfolio focuses on the geopolitics of artifi cial intelligence and on the intersection of the security and economic comp etition with China. Previously\, Predd served as director of the Acquisitio n and Technology Policy Center (ATP) within the RAND National Security Rese arch Division from 2018 until early 2022\, where he oversaw a period of gro wth in the breadth and depth of RAND's portfolio of force planning\, techno logy and acquisition\, and supply chain research for Office of the Secretar y of Defense (OSD)\, the Joint Staff\, the Combatant Commands\, defense age ncies like DARPA\, and international sponsors.
Jim Mitre is the inaugural vice president and director of RAND Global and Emerg ing Risks\, which delivers rigorous and objective public policy research on the most consequential challenges to civilization and global security. Mit re previously served as the director of the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Program.
Before joining RAND\, Mitre spent over a dec ade serving in multiple roles in the Department of Defense where he had res ponsibility for defense strategy\, strategic analysis\, scenario developmen t\, and force planning. He served as a senior advisor to the deputy secreta ry of defense for data and artificial intelligence\, principal director and acting deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force develo pment\, and as the executive director of the 2018 National Defense Strategy . Mitre was a presidential management fellow in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and served in Kabul\, Afghanistan\, and Nairobi\, Kenya.
Casey Dugan is the associate director of analysis for t he Technology and Security Policy (TASP) Center and a senior engineer at RA ND. Prior to RAND\, she managed the AI experience team at IBM Research\, wi th the mission of doing research at the intersection of human-computer inte raction (HCI) and AI\, and co-led the human-centered AI research strategy t here. Dugan has a background as a HCI researcher who has studied emerging t echnologies\, from social media to AI\, for nearly two decades. Her researc h has spanned workplace technologies/the future of work\, social media/soci al networking\, data analytics and visualization dashboards\, recommender s ystems\, games/gamification\, and human computation/crowdsourcing. She is a n author of 67+ scientific publications at conferences including CHI\, IUI\ , CSCW\, RecSys\, AAAI\, and NeurIPS\, and a prolific inventor\, with 34+ p atents filed with the USPTO. She earned her S.B. and M.Eng. degrees in comp uter science from MIT.
Interview with Mitre
Artificial General Intelligence
's Five Hard National Security Problems
Mitre Testimony in Brief
Alstott Testimon
y in Brief